Outdoor Living Spaces Add Value

It really doesn't matter where you live, even in colder or hotter climates, there are enough days during the year that you...

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The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: May 2016

Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released their latest read on manufacturing in their region indicating that assessments of manufacturing activity remained in contraction in May with the current general business activity index falling to a recessionary level of -20.8 while the future general business activity index also worsened to a contraction level of -1.8.

These results are an indication (consistent with other regional and national manufacturing activity data-points) that the U.S. manufacturing sector has clearly slumped into recessionary levels as of late and provides yet another likely harbinger of what is to come in 2016 for the general economy.



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S&P/Case-Shiller: March 2016

The latest release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for March reported that the non-seasonally adjusted National index increased from February with prices rising 0.72% while the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 city index increased 0.79% and the Composite-20 city index increased 0.90% over the same period.

On an annual basis, the National index increased 5.15% above the level seen in March 2015 while the Composite-10 city index increased 4.72% and the Composite-20 city index increased 5.43% over the same period.

On a peak basis, all three indices still show significant peak declines slumping -4.18% for the National index, -12.20% for the Composite-10 city index and -10.66% for the Composite-20 city index on a peak comparison basis.



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Skipping the Middle People in Real Estate Investing

Let's start this idea with an analysis of the benefits of real estate investment, as well as how it's funded in most cases. First...

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The Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity: May 2016

Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond released their Survey of Manufacturing Activity for May showing that the composite index, the broadest measure of manufacturing activity, worsened notably falling to a level of -1 from a level of 14 the prior month.

The most notable component measures also showed similar results with Shipments falling to -8, New Orders falling to 0 and Backlog of Orders falling to -13.



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New Home Sales: April 2016

Today, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for April showing a notable increase with sales jumping 16.6% from March climbing 23.8% above the level seen in April 2015 but still remaining near an historically low level with 619K SAAR units.

The monthly supply decreased to 4.7 months while the median selling price increased 9.7% and the average selling price increased 13.47% from the year ago level.

The following chart show the extent of sales decline to date (click for full-larger version).



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T.S.A. Replaces Security Chief as Tension Grows at Airports and Age

Peter V. Neffenger, the agency's administrator, removed Kelly Hoggan as part of an overhaul after facing a backlash over waits at airport security lines and management problems.

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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index: April 2016

The latest release of the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) indicated that national economic activity improved in April with the index falling to a contraction level of 0.10 from a level of -0.55 a month earlier while the three month moving average weakened to a level of -0.22.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity collected into four overall categories of “production and income”, “employment, unemployment and income”, “personal consumption and housing” and “sales, orders and inventories”.

The Chicago Fed regards a value of zero for the total index as indicating that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate while a negative value indicates below average growth.

A value at or below -0.70 for the three month moving average of the national activity index (CFNAI-MA3) indicates that the national economy has either just entered or continues in recession.



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The Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey: May 2016

The May release of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey (BOS) indicated a worsening of the regions manufacturing activity with the current activity index declining to a level of -1.8 while assessments the future activity also slipped to a level of 36.1.

The above chart shows the current and future activity indexes both with their corresponding 3-month moving averages. The red line marks the threshold between contraction and expansion for these diffusion indexes.



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Weekly Unemployment Claims: Initial and Continued May19 2016

Today’s jobless claims report showed a decline to both initial and continued unemployment claims as seasonally adjusted initial claims remained below the 300K level.

Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims declined by 16,000 to 278,000 claims while seasonally adjusted "continued" unemployment claims declined by 13,000 to 2.152 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 1.6%.




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Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – May 19 2016

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) went flat at 3.73% since last week while the purchase application volume declined 6% and the refinance application volume increased 1% over the same period.

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).






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Turn the Tables - Seek Out an Investor to Buy Your Home

OK, I'll start out by saying that this article is only going to apply to a rather small niche of home sellers. However,...

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My Home Sale Fell Apart: How To Avoid These 5 Real-Life Scenarios

A home sale can be a precarious thing. One minute, your real estate agent is sure the potential buyers — who just did a third walk-through of your home — will make an offer on your home for sale in Athens, GA, any day now. But the next minute, you could find out that those… Continue reading →

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Would You Rather: City Or Country?

Visualize with us: It’s a beautiful afternoon and you’re enjoying some time away from work and your other responsibilities. You decide to go for a stroll. What’s your view when you step outside your front door? Are you headed down a quiet country road toward a swimming hole on your property, or do you step onto the… Continue reading →

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Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: April 2016

Today, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production and capacity utilization showing improving results in April with total industrial production increasing 0.66% from March but falling 1.07% below the level seen in April 2015.

Capacity utilization also improved rising 0.64% from March but declined 2.04% below the level seen in April 2015 to stand at 75.381%.

It's important to note that industrial production is still showing significant weakness which, if all past periods were to serve at least as a rough guide, now clearly indicates notable trouble for the macro-economy.




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New Residential Construction Report: April 2016

Today’s New Residential Construction Report showed improvement with total permit activity rising 3.6% since March while total starts declined a notable 6.6% over the same period.

Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, rose 1.5% from March to 736K single family units (SAAR), rising 8.4% above the level seen a year earlier and still remained well below levels seen at the peak in September 2005.

Single family housing starts rose 3.3% from March to 778K units (SAAR) rising 4.3% above the level seen a year earlier but still remained well below the levels seen at the peak in September 2005.




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The Empire State Manufacturing Survey: May 2016

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey consists of a series of diffusion indices distilled from a monthly survey of New York regional manufacturing executives and seeks to identify trends across 22 different current and future manufacturing related activities.

Today’s report showed an overall worsening for both current and future assessments of manufacturing activity with the current activity index falling to a level of -9.02 while future activity also fell declining to a level of 28.48.

Current prices paid declined to 16.67 while current new orders dropped to -5.54 and assessments of future new orders declined slightly to 22.43.



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NAHB/Wells Fargo Home Builder Sentiment: May 2016

Today, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their latest Housing Market Index (HMI) showing that overall assessments of housing activity generally went flat for the fourth straight month in May with the composite HMI index remaining at 58 while the "buyer traffic" index went flat at a level of 44.






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Is Your Landlord Breaking The Law? 8 Warning Signs

From those frustrating nonrefundable deposits to rentals that aren’t technically legal, there are some landlords out there who don’t adhere to the letter of the law. But because landlord-tenant law differs from state to state, it can be confusing to understand exactly where the lines are … for both landlords and tenants. According to Nolo.com,… Continue reading →

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Retail Sales: April 2016

Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released its latest nominal read of retail sales showing improving activity in April with sales rising 1.3% from March and rising 3.0% on a year-over-year basis on an aggregate of all items including food, fuel and healthcare services.

Nominal "discretionary" retail sales including home furnishings, home garden and building materials, consumer electronics and department store sales declined 0.21% from March and rose 3.71% above the level seen in April 2015 while, adjusting for inflation, “real” discretionary retail sales declined 0.21% on the month and rose 2.96% since April 2015.





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Weekly Unemployment Claims: Initial and Continued May12 2016

Today’s jobless claims report showed a notable increase to both initial and continued unemployment claims as seasonally adjusted initial claims remained just below the 300K level.

Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims jumped by a whopping 20,000 to 294,000 claims while seasonally adjusted "continued" unemployment claims increased by 37,000 to 2.161 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 1.6%.




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Investors Like Rising Interest Rates

Ask a dozen economists about the effects of rising mortgage interest rates on the housing market, and you're likely...

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Can You Really Afford To Buy A House Right Now?

The scenario: Your landlord keeps hiking up your rent, and you’re tired of reworking your budget to accommodate the other areas of your life — or worse, searching for a new rental. You want to invest in a home for sale in Charleston, SC, or Seattle, WA, but you’re not sure if now is the… Continue reading →

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Photo Fail: 12 Tips For Taking Better Listing Pictures

A picture might be worth a thousand words, but in the case of your home’s listing photos, pictures can be worth thousands of dollars. It just makes sense: buyers often start their search by sifting through online listings, and if the listing photos are blurry or dark, it’s a lot easier to cross a home… Continue reading →

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Roommate Horror Story: 3 Real-Life Scenarios That Can Cost You

It’s the perfect storyline for a thriller: Roommate moves in. Roommate tries to steal your identity. Roommate turns into Single White Female. Actress Jennifer Jason Leigh may not have cost Bridget Fonda thousands in a lost security deposit (at least, not that we know of!), but roommate horror stories are more common than you might… Continue reading →

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Employment Situation: Nonfarm Payrolls and Civilian Unemployment April 2016

Today's Employment Situation Report indicated that in April, net non-farm payrolls increased by a 160,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 171,000 jobs while the civilian unemployment remained flat at 5.0% over the same period.

Net private sector jobs increased 0.14% since last month climbing 2.17% above the level seen a year ago and climbing 5.06% above the peak level of employment seen in December 2007 prior to the Great Recession.



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Employment Situation: Unemployment Duration April 2016

Today's employment situation report showed that conditions for the long term unemployed generally improved in April.

Workers unemployed 27 weeks or more decreased to 2.063 million or 25.7% of all unemployed workers while the median term of unemployment went flat at 11.4 weeks and the average stay on unemployment declined to 27.7 weeks.





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Employment Situation: Total Unemployment April 2016

Today's Employment Situation report showed that in April “total unemployment” including all marginally attached workers declined to 9.7% while the traditionally reported unemployment rate went flat at 5.0%.

The traditional unemployment rate is calculated from the monthly household survey results using a fairly explicit definition of “unemployed” (essentially unemployed and currently looking for full time employment) leaving many workers to be considered effectively “on the margin” either employed in part time work when full time is preferred or simply unemployed and no longer looking for work.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics considers “marginally attached” workers (including discouraged workers) and persons who have settled for part time employment to be “underutilized” labor.

The broadest view of unemployment would include both traditionally unemployed workers and all other underutilized workers.

To calculate the “total” rate of unemployment we would simply use this larger group rather than the smaller and more restrictive “unemployed” group used in the traditional unemployment rate calculation.



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Weekly Unemployment Claims: Initial and Continued May 05 2016

Today’s jobless claims report showed an increase to initial unemployment claims and a decrease to continued unemployment claims as seasonally adjusted initial claims remained below the 300K level.

Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increased by 17,000 to 274,000 claims while seasonally adjusted "continued" unemployment claims decreased by 8,000 to 2.121 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 1.5%.




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7 Things Buyers Should Never Overlook At Open Houses

When you’re on the hunt for a new house, weekends spent touring open houses can quickly veer from fun to daunting by house number three. Keeping track of which home had that great kitchen (but terrible master bath) versus the home with a terrible backyard but a great floor plan can be tough. And while… Continue reading →

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6 Reasons May Is The Best Month To List Your Home

Spring is busy ticking off the season’s milestones: We’re watching the cherry blossoms, celebrating Mother’s Day, and tossing graduation caps. Another item you may want to add to your list? Putting your home up for sale — specifically in May, when homes often sell faster, and for a bit more than the national average. But… Continue reading →

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ADP Manufacturing Meltdown

Looking a bit deeper at today's ADP Employment Report, one finds yet another clear signal that the current expansion may have topped-out making recession as a distinct possibility in 2016.

The ADP Total Manufacturing Payrolls series has continued to remain weak falling 0.02% on an annual basis.

Keep in mind that while manufacturing is clearly also showing strong secular weakness, this is a very sensitive series that should not be ignored.

Also, a revitalization of the nation's manufacturing sector was a important goal of the current administration's economic policy and a particularly key focus of 2009's American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.



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ADP National Employment Report: April 2016

Today, private staffing and business services firm ADP released the latest installment of their National Employment Report indicating that the situation for private employment in the U.S. improved in April as private employers added 156,000 jobs in the month bringing the total employment level 2.04% above the level seen in April 2015.

Look for Friday’s BLS Employment Situation Report to likely show, more or less, similar trends.



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ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business: April 2016

Today, the Institute for Supply Management released their latest Non-Manufacturing Report on Business indicating that service related business activity improved in April with the overall non-manufacturing index rising to 55.7 from last months reading of 54.5.

At 58.8 the business activity index weakened since last month falling 4.55% below the level seen a year earlier.



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Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – May 04 2016

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) increased 2 basis points to 3.78% since last week while the purchase application volume declined 0.10% and the refinance application volume decreased 6% over the same period.

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).






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Negotiate Like A Pro: 6 Tricks For Winning A Stalemate

When my husband and I first started the hunt for Atlanta, GA, real estate, I cringed at the tough negotiating he was doing, as did our agent. “You sound like a fast-talking big-city businessman,” she said to him in her smooth drawl. But as cringe-worthy as it seemed at the time, he was just engaging… Continue reading →

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What's Your Strategy Going Into Your Real Estate Investment?

One of the greatest things about real estate investing is that there are so many ways in which you can be involved. ...

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How Much Does Modern Cost? Guess The Prices Of These 5 Homes

Modern homes are like the sports cars of the real estate world. With sleek lines, floor-to-ceiling windows, and open floor plans, these bold living spaces are the perfect backdrop for a sunset soiree, late-night DJ party, or even a relaxing evening at home. But life in the fast lane can cost a pretty penny, especially… Continue reading →

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Construction Spending: March 2016

Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released their latest read of construction spending showing generally improving results in March with total private residential, private single family residential and private non-residential construction spending all increasing on the month.

On a month-to-month basis, total residential construction spending increased 1.6% on the month rising 7.8% above the level seen a year earlier but still remained well below the peak level seen in 2006.

Single family construction spending increased a slight 0.03% on the month rising 13.4% above the level seen a year earlier but still remained well below it's peak level reached in 2006.

Non-residential construction spending increased 0.7% on the month climbing 9.3% above the level seen a year earlier.

The following charts (click for larger dynamic versions) show private residential construction spending, private residential single family construction spending and private non-residential construction spending broken out and plotted since 1993 along with the year-over-year, month-to-month and peak percent change to each since 1994 and 2000 – 2005.





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ISM Manufacturing Report on Business: April 2016

Today, the Institute for Supply Management released their latest Report on Business for the manufacturing sector indicating that manufacturing activity slowed in April staying just above the contraction level for a second straight month.

At 50.8 the purchasing manager’s composite index (PMI) declined 1.93% from March and fell 1.36% below the level seen a year earlier.



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